First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win

The quote is from Gandhi, the "Mahatma", and like many have noted, it applies very well to the relation between Microsoft and Linux.

A few weeks ago, while listening to an interview with Patrick Volkerding on The Linux Link Tech Show, it occurred to me that in a couple of months, it will be 10 years since I installed my first Linux distribution at home. It was Slackware of course, running the venerable 2.0.27 kernel. Anyway, back in the day, Linux wasn't on anybody's radar, much less Microsoft's. Even as the years went on and Linux left the dungeons of Unix-hackerdom to become increasingly more mainstream, it was quite some time before Redmond paid any attention to it. First they ignore you.

As the years went by, Microsoft's official reaction to Linux falls perfectly into the "they laugh at you" category. They dismissed it as no more than a hacker's toy, nice for fooling around but of no use to the serious enterprise or home user. Only officially, of course. There were those at Microsoft who realised early on the long-term implications of open-source for their business model (see "The Halloween documents"), and the company has had no scruples to fight this threat with all (read "dirty") means necessary.

With the recent deal between Microsoft and Novell, and the subsequent announcement by Microsoft's CEO Steve Ballmer that Linux is infringing on Microsoft's intelectual property, it seems we are about to officially enter the "then they fight you" of Gandhi's stages. These should be interesting times. Ballmer's words are mostly empty (meant only to spread what in the Linux community is commonly referred to as FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), since Microsoft does not dare to face IBM and other electronics giants who support Linux (bear in mind that IBM alone has more lawyers than most developing nations). So, what can Microsoft do? The GNU/Linux community is unlike any other opponent Microsoft has faced before. It cannot be bought, it won't budge, and it has the strength of people who fight for ideals. Microsoft is sure to fight even dirtier this time, but it won't matter. Sooner or later they will realise that their only option for survival is to make a radical change to their business model. I would not be surprised if within the next five years Windows itself were to become open-source. If not, Microsoft will be effectively dead. Either way, the last stage will be achieved. "Then you win".